A recent high-court decision giving cities the right to ban diesel motors as a way to improve air quality took Germany by surprise. It's been a shock for politicians, who have no choice but to handle the issue, and for the economy as a whole, given that there's no master plan to help offset the inevitable conversion costs. The landmark ruling impacts individuals as well, particularly people whose livelihoods are directly linked to diesel.
The yard is covered in them. And judging by the snow that's piled on top of them, they've been here quite some time. They're used cars — many of them BMWs and Mercedes-Benzes, most of them diesel-operated models. Nabil Ashkar sits in his office, smoking. The used cars in his yard are now worthless. He used to sell them to dealers, but they don't want them anymore.
"The dealers have been closed for a week," Ashkar says. His only potential buyers come from Eastern Europe. "But they're aware of what's happening here, and they know the prices," he adds. The offers are so low that selling is not even worth it. Hence the vehicles keep sitting in the yard. "Yesterday, a woman asked for her down payment back," Ashkar recalls. "She didn't want a diesel car anymore."
Used car dealers like Ashkar have a problem. Last month's landmark ruling by the top administrative court, in Leipzig, is part of it. But the difficulties with diesel began even before that. In 2013, approximately half of newly registered cars ran on diesel. Last year, it was just one in three, and in February of this year, there was a 19% drop in the number of diesel cars registered compared to the same month in 2017.
As Ashkar and other dealers are discovering, there's a clear market shift to gasoline-powered cars. People are also buying electric cars and hybrids. The car market as a whole is quite lively, in fact. Despite the decrease in diesel cars, the overall number of newly registered vehicles rose 7% in February. Certainly, though, diesel is in a slow, painful decline.
We have to think about our grandchildren.
There's something almost insolent about Tesla's new flagship store. For one thing, the U.S. electric-car manufacturer decided to open the outlet in Stuttgart, home of Daimler and Porsche. It's also located smack in the middle of a pedestrian zone. At any rate, business is booming. It's Saturday morning and the Tesla shop is brimming with potential customers.
"Our test-drive calendar is always full," says one of the sellers. The man won't give his name but say he's very enthusiastic about the Leipzig verdict. "We've had a lot of calls since then," the young man says. "The callers ask us how they can get rid of their diesel before it's worthless." He then tells them that even Tesla takes old diesel cars in payment. "Many aren't aware of that," he says.
A married couple, Gerhard and Jutta Ludwig, decide to test drive a Model X. For Jutta, it's also a question of being responsible: "We have to think about our grandchildren. They also want to live," she says.
This, apparently, is what we have come to: The purchase of a Tesla SUV with gull-wing doors is considered the epitome of environmental protection. The Ludwigs wave in a good mood and walk through the pedestrian zone to their first electric-car ride. Meanwhile, the city of Stuttgart is getting ready to lift its latest fine-particle alert. By Tuesday, though, a new warning will go into effect.
Frank Kuhle, 51, is chairman of the Munich Taxi Cooperative. He has been in business for 30 years and has logged countless kilometers behind the wheel. "A diesel ban in Munich would be a huge problem for taxi drivers," he says. "Many might just stop working."
Kuhle estimates that a ban would affect about 75% of Munich's taxis — some 2,000 vehicles. Not only would it hurt their bottom line; it would also keep taxi drivers from fulfilling their "duty," he argues. "We are part of the public transportation system and must drive," Kuhle explains.
The veteran cabbie thinks that as a temporary solution, taxis should be exempt from a diesel ban. For many operators, replacing diesel vehicles is all but impossible, he says. "The largest companies in our cooperative have 50 taxis in their fleet, some more, and nobody can afford that," says Kuhle. Those that do switch over would have to increase their fare rates to offset the costs, he warns. That would then draw the ire of passengers, and put cab owners at odds with the city government, which has the final say on prices.
Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a car expert, and professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, has one recommendation for diesel drivers: Stay calm! Unloading their vehicles because of a general panic would only lead to losses. "I advise them against selling their cars," he says.
Instead, they should evaluate their options, Dudenhöffer explains. Newer models with straight-five diesel engines can be exchanged. And for older models there's a scrapping premium, he says. Depending on the vehicle and manufacturer, diesel car owners should be able to get between 3,000 and 4,000 euros back.
People who don't meet those requirements should keep driving their cars, for now, Dudenhöffer adds. Yes, the ruling in Leipzig is significant. But so far, there are no actual bans in place, he explains. And if bans are instituted for specific time periods, customers can always rent a car.
There's also a silver lining in all this for people who live in rural areas and won't, therefore, be affected by any would-be bans: diesel prices are dropping! For them, driving is more affordable than ever.